读到了纽约时报的OPED评论才知道从1845年开始，美国总统选举是订在拜二举行的。
那时候是为了方便农民的作息而订在拜二举行，经过了150年，美国人民的作息已经有很大的改变了，因此，有人建议把选举订在拜六或是礼拜。
也许是因为这样，贵为世界民主先进国，美国选民的出席率竟然是比其他国家还要低的。
Everybody’s Voting for the Weekend
By STEVE ISRAEL and NORMAN J. ORNSTEIN
Washington
BY Nov. 4, more than $5 billion will have been spent trying to persuade voters to cast their presidential and congressional ballots one way or another. Despite all the money and the news media hysteria, and even with record numbers of Americans heading to the polls, the United States won’t even come close to the top nations in the world for voter turnout. We will be well behind — to name just a few — Iceland, Sweden and New Zealand.
What do those countries, among many others, have in common? Their citizens all vote on a weekend day. But in the United States, for more than 150 years, we’ve voted on Tuesday. Why? It’s not in the Constitution. It isn’t to avoid holidays. And it’s not because people hate Mondays.
The reason we vote on Tuesday makes perfect sense — at least it did in 1845.
To understand the decision Congress made that year, let’s imagine ourselves as members of early agrarian American society. Saturday was for farming, Sunday was the Lord’s day, Monday was required for travel to the county seat where the polling places were, Tuesday you voted, Wednesday you returned home, and Thursday it was back to work.
It’s a safe bet that today most Americans don’t follow the same schedule as our farming forefathers. In fact, for many, Tuesday is one of the most inconvenient days to hold an election. One in four people who didn’t vote in 2006 said that they were “too busy” or had “conflicting work or school schedules.”
Legislation now before Congress would finally tailor our voting system to modern American life by establishing weekend voting for national elections. (Mr. Israel is sponsoring the bill in the House.) Here’s how it would work: The presidential election would be held on the Saturday and Sunday after the first Friday in November, while for those who aren’t often home on the weekends, there would be a few days of early voting.
Our current system penalizes single parents, people working two jobs, and those who have to choose between getting a paycheck and casting a ballot. Two weekend days of voting means those working families would have a greater chance of making it to the polls. It means easing the long lines during rush hour at the polling sites. It means more locations, more poll workers and more voters.
Some have suggested making Election Day a holiday, but that would involve a serious cost to the economy. Moving Election Day to the weekend means more convenience and less expense.
Making a change like this won’t be easy, but it’s not unprecedented. In 1968, Congress passed the Monday Holiday law, which moved Memorial Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day and Washington’s Birthday from their original dates to Mondays. If we can alter our federal holidays to benefit shoppers and travelers, surely we can change Election Day for the benefit of our voters.
Let’s take a cue from the Congress of 1845 and ensure that voting is available to as many working Americans as possible — not just those who can make it to the polls on a Tuesday.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
大马真的同世界隔绝吗?
金融大海啸的发展、蔓延、骨排效应（DOMINO EFFECT）还在燃烧中，很多人也相信会越烧越大。
但是，也只有我国的领导人声称大马不会受影响，仿佛我们是关起门来做生意的。
《世界是平》这本书的作者THOMAS FRIEDMAN在纽约时报的专栏就以冰岛发生的银行倒闭时间来告诉大家，世界上每个国家都是连接在一起，大家都是PARTNERS，金融海啸来时没有一个国家可以幸免的。
英国的大学、地方政府、慈善机构等为了获得更高的利息收入而把钱存在冰岛的银行，这些银行再把钱拿去投资在各种“创意产品”，结果海啸一来，血本无归。
The Great Iceland Meltdown
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Who knew? Who knew that Iceland was just a hedge fund with glaciers? Who knew?
If you’re looking for a single example of how the globalization of finance helped get us into this mess and how it will help get us out, you need look no further than British newspapers last week and their front-page articles about the number of British citizens, municipalities and universities — including Cambridge — that are in a tizzy today because they had savings parked in Icelandic banks, through online banking services like Icesave.co.uk.
As Dave Barry would say, I’m not makin’ this up.
When I went to the Icesave Web site to see what it was all about, the headline read: “Simple, transparent and consistently high-rate online savings accounts from Icesave.” But then, underneath in blue letters, I found the following note appended: “We are not currently processing any deposits or any withdrawal requests through our Icesave Internet accounts. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause our customers.”
Any “inconvenience?” When you can’t withdraw savings from an online bank in Iceland, that is more than an inconvenience! That’s a reason for total panic.
So what’s the story? Around 2002, Iceland began to free its banks from state ownership. According to The Wall Street Journal, the three banks that make up almost the entire banking system in Iceland “grew quickly on easy credit” and “their combined assets rose tenfold in five years.” The Icelandic banks, while not invested in U.S. subprime mortgages, had gone on their own borrowing and lending binges, wooing savers from across Europe with 5.45 percent interest savings accounts.
In a flat world, money can easily seek out the highest returns, and when word got around about Iceland, deposits poured in from Britain — some $1.8 billion. Unfortunately, though, when global credit markets closed up, and the krona fell, “the Icelandic banks were unable to finance their debts, many of which were denominated in foreign currencies,” The Times reported. When depositors rushed to get their money out, the Icelandic banking system had too little reserves to cover withdrawals, so all three banks melted down and were nationalized.
It turns out that more than 120 British municipal governments, as well as universities, hospitals and charities had deposits stranded in blocked Icelandic bank accounts. Cambridge alone had about $20 million, while 15 British police forces — from towns like Kent, Surrey, Sussex and Lancashire — had roughly $170 million frozen in Iceland, The Telegraph reported. Even the bobbies were banking in Iceland!
So think about it: Some mortgage broker in Los Angeles gives subprime “liar loans” to people who have no credit ratings so they can buy homes in Southern California. Those flimsy mortgages get globalized through the global banking system and, when they go sour, they eventually prompt banks to stop lending, fearful that every other bank’s assets are toxic, too.
The credit crunch hits Iceland, which went on its own binge. Meanwhile, the police department of Northumbria, England, had invested some of its extra cash in Iceland, and, now that those accounts are frozen, it may have to reduce street patrols this weekend.
And therein lies the central truth of globalization today: We’re all connected and nobody is in charge.
Globalization giveth — it was this democratization of finance that helped to power the global growth that lifted so many in India, China and Brazil out of poverty in recent decades. Globalization now taketh away — it was this democratization of finance that enabled the U.S. to infect the rest of the world with its toxic mortgages. And now, we have to hope, that globalization will saveth.
The real and sustained bailout from the crisis will happen when the strong companies buy the weak ones — on a global basis. It’s starting. Last week, Credit Suisse declined a Swiss government bailout and instead raised fresh capital from Qatar, the Olayan family of Saudi Arabia and Israel’s Koor Industries. Japan’s Mitsubishi bank bought a stake in Morgan Stanley, possibly rescuing it from bankruptcy and preventing an even steeper decline in the Dow. And Spain’s Banco Santander, which was spared from the worst of this credit crisis by Spain’s conservative banking regulations, is purchasing America’s Sovereign Bankcorp.
I suspect we will soon see the same happening in industry. And, once the smoke clears, I suspect we will find ourselves living in a world of globalization on steroids — a world in which key global economies are more intimately tied together than ever before.
It will be a world in which America will not be able to scratch its ear, let alone roll over in bed, without thinking about the impact on other countries and economies. And it will be a world in which multilateral diplomacy and regulation will no longer be a choice. It will be a reality and a
necessity. We are all partners now.
但是，也只有我国的领导人声称大马不会受影响，仿佛我们是关起门来做生意的。
《世界是平》这本书的作者THOMAS FRIEDMAN在纽约时报的专栏就以冰岛发生的银行倒闭时间来告诉大家，世界上每个国家都是连接在一起，大家都是PARTNERS，金融海啸来时没有一个国家可以幸免的。
英国的大学、地方政府、慈善机构等为了获得更高的利息收入而把钱存在冰岛的银行，这些银行再把钱拿去投资在各种“创意产品”，结果海啸一来，血本无归。
The Great Iceland Meltdown
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Who knew? Who knew that Iceland was just a hedge fund with glaciers? Who knew?
If you’re looking for a single example of how the globalization of finance helped get us into this mess and how it will help get us out, you need look no further than British newspapers last week and their front-page articles about the number of British citizens, municipalities and universities — including Cambridge — that are in a tizzy today because they had savings parked in Icelandic banks, through online banking services like Icesave.co.uk.
As Dave Barry would say, I’m not makin’ this up.
When I went to the Icesave Web site to see what it was all about, the headline read: “Simple, transparent and consistently high-rate online savings accounts from Icesave.” But then, underneath in blue letters, I found the following note appended: “We are not currently processing any deposits or any withdrawal requests through our Icesave Internet accounts. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause our customers.”
Any “inconvenience?” When you can’t withdraw savings from an online bank in Iceland, that is more than an inconvenience! That’s a reason for total panic.
So what’s the story? Around 2002, Iceland began to free its banks from state ownership. According to The Wall Street Journal, the three banks that make up almost the entire banking system in Iceland “grew quickly on easy credit” and “their combined assets rose tenfold in five years.” The Icelandic banks, while not invested in U.S. subprime mortgages, had gone on their own borrowing and lending binges, wooing savers from across Europe with 5.45 percent interest savings accounts.
In a flat world, money can easily seek out the highest returns, and when word got around about Iceland, deposits poured in from Britain — some $1.8 billion. Unfortunately, though, when global credit markets closed up, and the krona fell, “the Icelandic banks were unable to finance their debts, many of which were denominated in foreign currencies,” The Times reported. When depositors rushed to get their money out, the Icelandic banking system had too little reserves to cover withdrawals, so all three banks melted down and were nationalized.
It turns out that more than 120 British municipal governments, as well as universities, hospitals and charities had deposits stranded in blocked Icelandic bank accounts. Cambridge alone had about $20 million, while 15 British police forces — from towns like Kent, Surrey, Sussex and Lancashire — had roughly $170 million frozen in Iceland, The Telegraph reported. Even the bobbies were banking in Iceland!
So think about it: Some mortgage broker in Los Angeles gives subprime “liar loans” to people who have no credit ratings so they can buy homes in Southern California. Those flimsy mortgages get globalized through the global banking system and, when they go sour, they eventually prompt banks to stop lending, fearful that every other bank’s assets are toxic, too.
The credit crunch hits Iceland, which went on its own binge. Meanwhile, the police department of Northumbria, England, had invested some of its extra cash in Iceland, and, now that those accounts are frozen, it may have to reduce street patrols this weekend.
And therein lies the central truth of globalization today: We’re all connected and nobody is in charge.
Globalization giveth — it was this democratization of finance that helped to power the global growth that lifted so many in India, China and Brazil out of poverty in recent decades. Globalization now taketh away — it was this democratization of finance that enabled the U.S. to infect the rest of the world with its toxic mortgages. And now, we have to hope, that globalization will saveth.
The real and sustained bailout from the crisis will happen when the strong companies buy the weak ones — on a global basis. It’s starting. Last week, Credit Suisse declined a Swiss government bailout and instead raised fresh capital from Qatar, the Olayan family of Saudi Arabia and Israel’s Koor Industries. Japan’s Mitsubishi bank bought a stake in Morgan Stanley, possibly rescuing it from bankruptcy and preventing an even steeper decline in the Dow. And Spain’s Banco Santander, which was spared from the worst of this credit crisis by Spain’s conservative banking regulations, is purchasing America’s Sovereign Bankcorp.
I suspect we will soon see the same happening in industry. And, once the smoke clears, I suspect we will find ourselves living in a world of globalization on steroids — a world in which key global economies are more intimately tied together than ever before.
It will be a world in which America will not be able to scratch its ear, let alone roll over in bed, without thinking about the impact on other countries and economies. And it will be a world in which multilateral diplomacy and regulation will no longer be a choice. It will be a reality and a
necessity. We are all partners now.
Monday, October 13, 2008
以债养债
美国金融风暴让人们看到了原来好吃懒做、尽情消费、债台高筑的后果可以由世界其他国家来“埋单”，今天中国人几十年来的勤奋工作，累计的大笔储备金，买了美国的债券，成为债权人，结果到头来是吃大亏，现在还要另外拿出资金来救美国，中国人真得是上辈子欠了美国人。
南方朔说这是“债务隧道”！
大家或许应该问问看到底我们的EPF是否也不小心的走进了这个债务隧道？美国的金融产品的中介人（BROKERS）是无孔不入的，哪里有钱，他们就会看上你，我们的EPF钱多多，这些中介人相信也注意到吧！就让我们拭目以待，看看EPF是否中箭落马！
南方朔觀點─「債務隧道」深深深幾許！
在過去一個月裡，全球政府投入救市的金額早已逾兆美元，但整個市場卻彷彿像黑洞般讓這些龐大的金額悄悄的消失無蹤，而且似乎並沒有帶動出多少漣漪。於是人們不禁想問：救市到底要幾兆才夠？世界到底發生了甚麼事？
而這些難題似乎並沒有人知道答案。用當今專業圈裡的說法，那就是在全球的「債務隧道」裡到底隱藏著多少虧損及負債，它的總額仍無人知悉。「國際貨幣基金」夠權威了，四月份它估計為○點九四兆美元，九月估計一兆三千億美元，十月估計一兆四千億美元，它仍在且戰且走的看情況向上修正中。這種情況就像去年次貸風暴初現時，美國聯準會根本不以為意，認為它只是四、五百億元即可打發的小問題，但與時推移，才發現次貸的「債務隧道」深不見底，到了今年六月「國際貨幣基金」才估計稱高達○點九七兆。而到了今天，次貸問題早已被包裹進了更大的金融海嘯裡。由上述變化，探索這個「債務隧道」，或許才是重點。
根據法國會計金融專家佛隆（Nicolas Veron）及其同僚的近著《一家煙火公司的故事：資本主義的會計詐欺》，我們已知道近十年來，所謂的「創造性的會計」當道，它透過種種「會計詐欺」（Accounting shenanigans）將虧損在全球隱藏，而後炮製出盈餘並因此而發展出各種衍生性金融商品，在金融市場獲利。股神巴菲特早在二○○五年六月在致他公司股東的公開信裡就已明言；「衍生性金融商品，已成了全球金融的大規模毀滅性武器。」
而當今美國主要金融評論家摩理士（Charles R.Morris）在剛出版的《億兆美元融解：便宜錢、高滾輪，信用大崩盤》裡更詳盡的將當今有如迷宮般的借貸市場，以及每種負債又被包裹成種種衍生性金融商品如CDO.CDS.CMBS…等做了細部探討。其中CDO方面估計至少十五兆美元， CDS至少四十五兆美元，加上種種其他擴散效應，整個金融名目資產高達五百兆美元。將債務透過層層包裝而變成可販賣的資產，在說法上是將債務的風險分攤轉移，但在操作上，則等於是將別人及他國拉來成為自己債務的最後墊背者。這也就是說，在各種衍生性商品裡，具有風險保險契約性質的CDS最可怕的原因。新興經濟體如巴基斯坦、土耳其、阿拉伯聯合大公國等介入較深的國家，都將中箭落馬。
因此，全球救市究竟要多少兆美元才足以支撐出它的底部？答案可能根本沒有人知道。冰島小國寡民，人口才卅萬，金融結構也最單純，因此它在全球「債務隧道」裡曝險的程度才得以最先得以透明化；它的債務居然高達總生產毛額的九倍以上。冰島國家破產，不是特例，而是具體而微的縮影。全球不知還有多少國家躲藏在「債務隧道」裡！
華爾街、美國三大信評公司、五大會計師公司（現只剩四家）在過去十年裡合奏出全球最大的金融泡沫進行曲，而今泡沫破裂，仍由出身「高盛」執行長的財長鮑爾森率班底救市。由美國救市策略的一再調整，它企圖穩定關鍵銀行，進而為股市築底。美國股市裡，佔最大比例的乃是聯邦、各州和地方，及私人退休基金，總額在十兆美元以上，目前這些退休基金至少己虧損二兆美元，若再惡化，難保不引發更大的社會政治風暴。
只是「債務隧道」深不可測，近來美國動作頻頻，期盼擁有龐大主權財富基金的新興經濟體如中國、沙烏地等協助築底，但面對這樣的「債務隧道」，誰不惴惴難安？這乃是中國大陸至今仍舉棋不定的原因。
全球由次貸風暴而升高到金融危機，最後深化為金融海嘯，而其影響面，則由虛擬經濟終於將傷害落實到實體經濟上。目前歐洲已進入衰退，美國則從今年第三季起也將進入衰退，最保守的估計，不到明年第三季，將難有復原的可能。連帶的，全球貿易銳減，失業大增等病灶也將一一浮現。就整體結構而言，全球將因此進入一個痛苦的「美元時代的終結」的調整期。這個問題很快就會出現。如何面對全球金融債務可能擴大，經濟即將大幅衰退，以及金融秩序可能重整，或許才是台灣在救市的同時必須未雨綢繆的嚴肅課題！
南方朔说这是“债务隧道”！
大家或许应该问问看到底我们的EPF是否也不小心的走进了这个债务隧道？美国的金融产品的中介人（BROKERS）是无孔不入的，哪里有钱，他们就会看上你，我们的EPF钱多多，这些中介人相信也注意到吧！就让我们拭目以待，看看EPF是否中箭落马！
南方朔觀點─「債務隧道」深深深幾許！
在過去一個月裡，全球政府投入救市的金額早已逾兆美元，但整個市場卻彷彿像黑洞般讓這些龐大的金額悄悄的消失無蹤，而且似乎並沒有帶動出多少漣漪。於是人們不禁想問：救市到底要幾兆才夠？世界到底發生了甚麼事？
而這些難題似乎並沒有人知道答案。用當今專業圈裡的說法，那就是在全球的「債務隧道」裡到底隱藏著多少虧損及負債，它的總額仍無人知悉。「國際貨幣基金」夠權威了，四月份它估計為○點九四兆美元，九月估計一兆三千億美元，十月估計一兆四千億美元，它仍在且戰且走的看情況向上修正中。這種情況就像去年次貸風暴初現時，美國聯準會根本不以為意，認為它只是四、五百億元即可打發的小問題，但與時推移，才發現次貸的「債務隧道」深不見底，到了今年六月「國際貨幣基金」才估計稱高達○點九七兆。而到了今天，次貸問題早已被包裹進了更大的金融海嘯裡。由上述變化，探索這個「債務隧道」，或許才是重點。
根據法國會計金融專家佛隆（Nicolas Veron）及其同僚的近著《一家煙火公司的故事：資本主義的會計詐欺》，我們已知道近十年來，所謂的「創造性的會計」當道，它透過種種「會計詐欺」（Accounting shenanigans）將虧損在全球隱藏，而後炮製出盈餘並因此而發展出各種衍生性金融商品，在金融市場獲利。股神巴菲特早在二○○五年六月在致他公司股東的公開信裡就已明言；「衍生性金融商品，已成了全球金融的大規模毀滅性武器。」
而當今美國主要金融評論家摩理士（Charles R.Morris）在剛出版的《億兆美元融解：便宜錢、高滾輪，信用大崩盤》裡更詳盡的將當今有如迷宮般的借貸市場，以及每種負債又被包裹成種種衍生性金融商品如CDO.CDS.CMBS…等做了細部探討。其中CDO方面估計至少十五兆美元， CDS至少四十五兆美元，加上種種其他擴散效應，整個金融名目資產高達五百兆美元。將債務透過層層包裝而變成可販賣的資產，在說法上是將債務的風險分攤轉移，但在操作上，則等於是將別人及他國拉來成為自己債務的最後墊背者。這也就是說，在各種衍生性商品裡，具有風險保險契約性質的CDS最可怕的原因。新興經濟體如巴基斯坦、土耳其、阿拉伯聯合大公國等介入較深的國家，都將中箭落馬。
因此，全球救市究竟要多少兆美元才足以支撐出它的底部？答案可能根本沒有人知道。冰島小國寡民，人口才卅萬，金融結構也最單純，因此它在全球「債務隧道」裡曝險的程度才得以最先得以透明化；它的債務居然高達總生產毛額的九倍以上。冰島國家破產，不是特例，而是具體而微的縮影。全球不知還有多少國家躲藏在「債務隧道」裡！
華爾街、美國三大信評公司、五大會計師公司（現只剩四家）在過去十年裡合奏出全球最大的金融泡沫進行曲，而今泡沫破裂，仍由出身「高盛」執行長的財長鮑爾森率班底救市。由美國救市策略的一再調整，它企圖穩定關鍵銀行，進而為股市築底。美國股市裡，佔最大比例的乃是聯邦、各州和地方，及私人退休基金，總額在十兆美元以上，目前這些退休基金至少己虧損二兆美元，若再惡化，難保不引發更大的社會政治風暴。
只是「債務隧道」深不可測，近來美國動作頻頻，期盼擁有龐大主權財富基金的新興經濟體如中國、沙烏地等協助築底，但面對這樣的「債務隧道」，誰不惴惴難安？這乃是中國大陸至今仍舉棋不定的原因。
全球由次貸風暴而升高到金融危機，最後深化為金融海嘯，而其影響面，則由虛擬經濟終於將傷害落實到實體經濟上。目前歐洲已進入衰退，美國則從今年第三季起也將進入衰退，最保守的估計，不到明年第三季，將難有復原的可能。連帶的，全球貿易銳減，失業大增等病灶也將一一浮現。就整體結構而言，全球將因此進入一個痛苦的「美元時代的終結」的調整期。這個問題很快就會出現。如何面對全球金融債務可能擴大，經濟即將大幅衰退，以及金融秩序可能重整，或許才是台灣在救市的同時必須未雨綢繆的嚴肅課題！
了解美国金融海啸
美国引爆的金融海啸，蔓延到世界各地，（奇怪，好像只有大马不受影响，首相、第一、第二财长先后放话，要国人放心，大马经济还强，可以经得起海啸）。
对于人来说，我们还是一再追问，到底是什么问题造成美国金融海啸？Please read this good article。
The Crisis's Silver Lining by Fareed Zakaria
Amid the financial chaos and economic uncertainty that has rocked worldmarkets, I can see one silver lining. This crisis has forced the UnitedStates to confront the bad habits it developed over the past few decades.If we can kick those habits, today's pain will translate into gains in thelong run.
Since the 1980s, Americans have consumed more than they produced and havemade up the difference by borrowing. Two decades of easy money andinnovative financial products meant that virtually anyone could borrow anyamount for any purpose. Household debt ballooned from $680 billion in 1974to $14 trillion today. The average household has 13 credit cards, and 40percent of these carry a balance, up from 6 percent in 1970.
But the average American's behavior was virtuous compared with governmentbehavior. Every city, county and state has wanted to preserve itsproliferating operations yet not raise taxes. How to square this circle? Byborrowing, using ever more elaborate financial instruments.
Local pols weren't the only problem. Under Alan Greenspan, the FederalReserve refused to inflict pain. Russian default? Cut interest rates. Theeconomic slowdown after Sept. 11? Cut rates. Whatever the problem, thesolution was to keep money flowing and goose the economy.
In 1990, the national debt was $3 trillion. It is now $10.2 trillion.
If there is a lesson to be taken from this crisis, it's an old rule:There is no free lunch. Now, debt is not a bad thing. Used responsibly, itis at the heart of modern capitalism. But hiding mountains of debt incomplex instruments is an invitation to irresponsible behavior.
In the short term, governments must take on more debts and obligations toresolve the crisis. But that doesn't mean we should stimulate the economywith more tax cuts, as some economists advocate. That would only keep theparty going artificially. A far better stimulus would be to expedite majorinfrastructure and energy projects, which are investments, not consumption,and have a different effect on fiscal fortunes.
In the longer term, we have to get back to basics. Government should putincentives in place that make saving more likely. The U.S. governmentoffers enormous incentives to consume (the mortgage interest tax deductionbeing the best example), and it works. We have the world's biggest housesand the most cars. If we were to tax consumption and encourage savings,that would also work. Regulations on credit card debt should be revised toensure that people understand their risks.
Paul Volcker has long argued that the recent financial innovation simplyshuffled around existing resources while contributing few real benefits tothe economy. Such activity will now be reduced significantly. Boykin Curry,a New York fund manager, points out that "30 percent of S&P 500 profitslast year were earned by financial firms, and U.S. consumers were spending$800 billion more than they earned every year. As a result, most of our topmath PhDs were being pulled into nonproductive financial engineeringinstead of biotech research and fuel technology. Capital expenditures wentinto retail construction instead of critical infrastructure." The crisiswill stop the misallocation of human and financial resources and redirectthem in more productive ways. If some of the smart people on Wall Streetend up building better models of energy usage and efficiency, that would bea net gain for the economy.
The U.S. economy remains extremely dynamic. Even now, the most surprisingdata continue to be how resilient the economy has been through the recentshocks. That will not last if the panic persists, but the economy'sunderlying virtues would help it recover quickly from a recession. The risein emerging-market economies, which have been powering global growth, willnot vanish overnight, either.
In the short run, there has been a flight to safety -- toward dollars andTreasury bills -- but in the long run, countries are likely to seek greaterindependence from an unstable superpower. The United States will have towork to attract capital and must organize its fiscal affairs. We will haveto make strategic choices. We cannot deploy missile interceptors alongRussia's borders, draw Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, and still expectRussian cooperation on Iran's nuclear program. We cannot denounce Chineseand Arab investments here and the next day hope that they will keep buyingT-bills. We cannot keep preaching about democracy and capitalism with ourown house so wildly out of order. Instilling discipline will be painful fora country used to having it all. But it will make us much stronger in thelong run.
The writer is editor of Newsweek International and co-host of PostGlobal,an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address iscomments@fareedzakaria.com.
对于人来说，我们还是一再追问，到底是什么问题造成美国金融海啸？Please read this good article。
The Crisis's Silver Lining by Fareed Zakaria
Amid the financial chaos and economic uncertainty that has rocked worldmarkets, I can see one silver lining. This crisis has forced the UnitedStates to confront the bad habits it developed over the past few decades.If we can kick those habits, today's pain will translate into gains in thelong run.
Since the 1980s, Americans have consumed more than they produced and havemade up the difference by borrowing. Two decades of easy money andinnovative financial products meant that virtually anyone could borrow anyamount for any purpose. Household debt ballooned from $680 billion in 1974to $14 trillion today. The average household has 13 credit cards, and 40percent of these carry a balance, up from 6 percent in 1970.
But the average American's behavior was virtuous compared with governmentbehavior. Every city, county and state has wanted to preserve itsproliferating operations yet not raise taxes. How to square this circle? Byborrowing, using ever more elaborate financial instruments.
Local pols weren't the only problem. Under Alan Greenspan, the FederalReserve refused to inflict pain. Russian default? Cut interest rates. Theeconomic slowdown after Sept. 11? Cut rates. Whatever the problem, thesolution was to keep money flowing and goose the economy.
In 1990, the national debt was $3 trillion. It is now $10.2 trillion.
If there is a lesson to be taken from this crisis, it's an old rule:There is no free lunch. Now, debt is not a bad thing. Used responsibly, itis at the heart of modern capitalism. But hiding mountains of debt incomplex instruments is an invitation to irresponsible behavior.
In the short term, governments must take on more debts and obligations toresolve the crisis. But that doesn't mean we should stimulate the economywith more tax cuts, as some economists advocate. That would only keep theparty going artificially. A far better stimulus would be to expedite majorinfrastructure and energy projects, which are investments, not consumption,and have a different effect on fiscal fortunes.
In the longer term, we have to get back to basics. Government should putincentives in place that make saving more likely. The U.S. governmentoffers enormous incentives to consume (the mortgage interest tax deductionbeing the best example), and it works. We have the world's biggest housesand the most cars. If we were to tax consumption and encourage savings,that would also work. Regulations on credit card debt should be revised toensure that people understand their risks.
Paul Volcker has long argued that the recent financial innovation simplyshuffled around existing resources while contributing few real benefits tothe economy. Such activity will now be reduced significantly. Boykin Curry,a New York fund manager, points out that "30 percent of S&P 500 profitslast year were earned by financial firms, and U.S. consumers were spending$800 billion more than they earned every year. As a result, most of our topmath PhDs were being pulled into nonproductive financial engineeringinstead of biotech research and fuel technology. Capital expenditures wentinto retail construction instead of critical infrastructure." The crisiswill stop the misallocation of human and financial resources and redirectthem in more productive ways. If some of the smart people on Wall Streetend up building better models of energy usage and efficiency, that would bea net gain for the economy.
The U.S. economy remains extremely dynamic. Even now, the most surprisingdata continue to be how resilient the economy has been through the recentshocks. That will not last if the panic persists, but the economy'sunderlying virtues would help it recover quickly from a recession. The risein emerging-market economies, which have been powering global growth, willnot vanish overnight, either.
In the short run, there has been a flight to safety -- toward dollars andTreasury bills -- but in the long run, countries are likely to seek greaterindependence from an unstable superpower. The United States will have towork to attract capital and must organize its fiscal affairs. We will haveto make strategic choices. We cannot deploy missile interceptors alongRussia's borders, draw Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, and still expectRussian cooperation on Iran's nuclear program. We cannot denounce Chineseand Arab investments here and the next day hope that they will keep buyingT-bills. We cannot keep preaching about democracy and capitalism with ourown house so wildly out of order. Instilling discipline will be painful fora country used to having it all. But it will make us much stronger in thelong run.
The writer is editor of Newsweek International and co-host of PostGlobal,an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address iscomments@fareedzakaria.com.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
轻重 缓急
九月份在内部安全法令下被捉的三个人中，只剩下RAJAPETRA一人还被扣留，其他两位都被释放了。
我们时常听到说马华在这件事件上争取释放记者，对其他两位似乎是抱着“不关心”的态度。我想在事件一开始时的几个小时里面，全部的注意力的确是集中在争取释放记者。
显然大家都对政府引用有关恶法觉得很可耻，也觉得是太无辜了，而在三位被扣留者当中，不可否认的是记者是当中“最、最、最”无辜的，也是最引起公愤的。
以当时的情形，相信大家都会同意要争取第一时间同时释放三个人是“不可能的任务”，更重要的是如果把他们三个人“绑在一起处理”，可能会弄巧成拙。
因此，当大家指责马华时，请要了解，在处理这棘手事件上，要分“轻重、缓急”，要争取第一时间把“最、最、最”无辜者释放。至少，这个目标已经达到了。
其实，在整个事件上，更有两件可耻事情：-
1）AHMAD ISMAIL 看来是逍遥法外了；
2）前反对党领袖对马华无理的指控，至今死不认错，又要怎么说呢？
我们时常听到说马华在这件事件上争取释放记者，对其他两位似乎是抱着“不关心”的态度。我想在事件一开始时的几个小时里面，全部的注意力的确是集中在争取释放记者。
显然大家都对政府引用有关恶法觉得很可耻，也觉得是太无辜了，而在三位被扣留者当中，不可否认的是记者是当中“最、最、最”无辜的，也是最引起公愤的。
以当时的情形，相信大家都会同意要争取第一时间同时释放三个人是“不可能的任务”，更重要的是如果把他们三个人“绑在一起处理”，可能会弄巧成拙。
因此，当大家指责马华时，请要了解，在处理这棘手事件上，要分“轻重、缓急”，要争取第一时间把“最、最、最”无辜者释放。至少，这个目标已经达到了。
其实，在整个事件上，更有两件可耻事情：-
1）AHMAD ISMAIL 看来是逍遥法外了；
2）前反对党领袖对马华无理的指控，至今死不认错，又要怎么说呢？
Saturday, October 11, 2008
民政党的虚伪-2
就将在明年三月退下的国阵主席在民政党大会上建议开放国阵的党员籍，好让国阵招收个人会员。
这项建议马上获得子根、袖强等人的认同，说什么“与民政殊途同归”。这些好像执到宝，深以为这样下来，国阵就会重获人们的支持。
严格的来说，就是因为成员党领袖的唯唯诺诺，才造成了今天巫统的独大、巫统的霸权！大马今天沦落到这个地步，就是因为巫统。君不见在308大选过后，马华、民政的大小领袖不是争先恐后的发表谈话，说是被巫统害了吗？不是有人要和巫统划清界限吗？
说的严重一点，巫统的霸权、霸道是历史的共业，马华、民政有份参与、促成这个共业，换言之是“共犯”！
既然大家都有这样的了解，知道问题的关键所在，那么，开放国阵并非可以解决问题。一听到首相说要开放，就一蜂窝的唱好、叫好，等于是“掩耳盗铃”，不敢面对现实！
今天看到一位马来评论员，THE EDGE的执行编辑在13/10/2008-FORUM版写的评论，更是使我对这些“一蜂窝”的领导人感到可悲。
WHAT AILS UMNO ？ Azam Aris
..... What ails UMNO in its present form is that it is seen as a party that is arrogant and corrupt and which no longer has the interest of the rakyat - the majority of whom are not umno's members - at heart.
The Umno that fought for the independence and fulfilled the nation's dream , a selfless party that worked and sacrified for the rakyat no longer exists. It has beocme insular and devoid of any feeling of wrongdoing. Umno neither wants to be criticised nor listen to criticism.....
Its political cry for ketuanan Melayu is loathed by the majority of non-malays, including those in the BN.They havo no problem accepting Malay leadership but not malay supremacy ...
Malays who are not umno members are beginning to feel that the party is not interested in promoting their cause but only that of umno. To them ketuanan melayu has become ketuanan umno..
问题在哪里，大家心知肚明，偏偏就是有这么一些领导人在"顾左右而言他"，当然他们心里还在盘算着这样就可以“左右逢源”，继续当官/求官！
我很担心，历史的共业会在“顾左右而言他”的情形下长存，而共犯也一代传一代！
天佑大马！
这项建议马上获得子根、袖强等人的认同，说什么“与民政殊途同归”。这些好像执到宝，深以为这样下来，国阵就会重获人们的支持。
严格的来说，就是因为成员党领袖的唯唯诺诺，才造成了今天巫统的独大、巫统的霸权！大马今天沦落到这个地步，就是因为巫统。君不见在308大选过后，马华、民政的大小领袖不是争先恐后的发表谈话，说是被巫统害了吗？不是有人要和巫统划清界限吗？
说的严重一点，巫统的霸权、霸道是历史的共业，马华、民政有份参与、促成这个共业，换言之是“共犯”！
既然大家都有这样的了解，知道问题的关键所在，那么，开放国阵并非可以解决问题。一听到首相说要开放，就一蜂窝的唱好、叫好，等于是“掩耳盗铃”，不敢面对现实！
今天看到一位马来评论员，THE EDGE的执行编辑在13/10/2008-FORUM版写的评论，更是使我对这些“一蜂窝”的领导人感到可悲。
WHAT AILS UMNO ？ Azam Aris
..... What ails UMNO in its present form is that it is seen as a party that is arrogant and corrupt and which no longer has the interest of the rakyat - the majority of whom are not umno's members - at heart.
The Umno that fought for the independence and fulfilled the nation's dream , a selfless party that worked and sacrified for the rakyat no longer exists. It has beocme insular and devoid of any feeling of wrongdoing. Umno neither wants to be criticised nor listen to criticism.....
Its political cry for ketuanan Melayu is loathed by the majority of non-malays, including those in the BN.They havo no problem accepting Malay leadership but not malay supremacy ...
Malays who are not umno members are beginning to feel that the party is not interested in promoting their cause but only that of umno. To them ketuanan melayu has become ketuanan umno..
问题在哪里，大家心知肚明，偏偏就是有这么一些领导人在"顾左右而言他"，当然他们心里还在盘算着这样就可以“左右逢源”，继续当官/求官！
我很担心，历史的共业会在“顾左右而言他”的情形下长存，而共犯也一代传一代！
天佑大马！
民政党最虚伪
民政党代表大会\党选过了。
我始终觉得民政党很虚伪，自我标榜为多元种族，也曾经一阵子因为多元种族没太大市场而改为非种族，但是改来改去，该党的路是越走越窄，人也越来越少。
到了这次党选，丁福南明明是理想人选，却硬硬被压下来，说什么要排出一个多元种族阵容，但是代表不接受这一套，选出了一个来自槟州的“阿HUAN”，这回就看子根这么处理这个菜单外的人选了！
如果说是多元种族阵容，君不见在全国大选时，民政党的候选人又怎么会是清一色华人呢？
还有，你明知道马华、民政惨败，不是国阵开放不开放党员问题，也不是十多个成员党解散后一起加入国阵成为单一政党就可以解决的。
问题大家都知道是在哪里，套用槟城人的一句口头蝉：不必问阿贵也知道！
还有拿为“阿花”大姐，一下子说要退出国阵，最近又说要留在国阵“纠正国阵”，拜托，民政党就是因为“打进国阵，纠正国阵”而成为千古笑柄啊！
我始终觉得民政党很虚伪，自我标榜为多元种族，也曾经一阵子因为多元种族没太大市场而改为非种族，但是改来改去，该党的路是越走越窄，人也越来越少。
到了这次党选，丁福南明明是理想人选，却硬硬被压下来，说什么要排出一个多元种族阵容，但是代表不接受这一套，选出了一个来自槟州的“阿HUAN”，这回就看子根这么处理这个菜单外的人选了！
如果说是多元种族阵容，君不见在全国大选时，民政党的候选人又怎么会是清一色华人呢？
还有，你明知道马华、民政惨败，不是国阵开放不开放党员问题，也不是十多个成员党解散后一起加入国阵成为单一政党就可以解决的。
问题大家都知道是在哪里，套用槟城人的一句口头蝉：不必问阿贵也知道！
还有拿为“阿花”大姐，一下子说要退出国阵，最近又说要留在国阵“纠正国阵”，拜托，民政党就是因为“打进国阵，纠正国阵”而成为千古笑柄啊！
Thursday, October 9, 2008
GOP这回害死人
以前商人一直在提倡"小政府"，认为政府的管制越少越好，就让那只看不到的手去操作。
结果，整个制度给弄坏了，造成今天这么凄凉的处境。
从经济泡沫到政治泡沫 ——共和党“永久多数”的破灭
（2008-10-09）
于时语
近年来，美国出现一连串的经济泡沫，先是世纪之交的高科技泡沫，紧接着是房地产泡沫，再到最新的华尔街金融泡沫，从出现、暴涨到破灭的周期之快，令人目不暇接。
但是在政治领域，美国还有一个演变速度更惊人的泡沫，这便是喧嚣一时的共和党“永久多数”。最新的征象，是在华尔街金融泡沫破灭之际，却有三分之二的共和党众议员一开始投票反对布什政府的7000亿美元救市法案。
在共和党草根“造反”的老生常谈之外，《华尔街日报》精明地指出：反对救市法案的，多是11月大选中席位风雨飘摇的两党议员，而其中共和党人占绝对多数，反映了该党面临的恶劣选情。
“永久多数”有其基础
自从在1994年中期选举中，40年来首次夺得美国众议院多数席位，共和党在国会选战中几乎是无往不胜。共和党在2004年的大选中达到高峰，如日中天，“永久多数”之说因之甚嚣尘上。
2004年，不仅布什总统以多数选民票获得连任，共和党显著扩大了在参众两院的绝对多数。更有甚者，共和党还全面动员，将民主党在全美政界的最高人物、身为参议院少数党领袖的南达科他州的达斯勒（Tom Daschle）给拉下马，创造了半个多世纪未见的政治奇迹。
“保守主义革命”大潮势不可挡，弹冠相庆的保守派人士纷纷认为共和党的“永久多数”将会维持一代人以上。著名右翼论客巴恩斯（Fred Barnes）更预言未来数十年眼看都是“共和党霸权”（Republican hegemony）的天下。
可是短短两年之后，民主党便在2006年中期选举中以微弱多数夺回参、众两院的控制。今年大选前景，前引《华尔街日报》的前瞻性分析已经说得十分明白。更重要的是美国政治生态和经济状况的沧桑演变，使得共和党“永久多数”成为美国近代史上周期最短的政治泡沫。
在“意识形态”上，共和党“永久多数”的基础可以归纳为：第一，减少政府的社会功能和对经济的干预（“小政府”主义）。最好的例子是里根总统的就职演说：“政府不是我们问题的解答；问题本身正是政府。”
第二，保守的社会“价值”。第三，基于武力的强硬外交政策。
共和党意识形态的破产
在政治操作上，共和党“永久多数”依靠的是严密有效的基层组织，以及企业捐款与国会立法之间的“良性互动”。前者得益于基督教右翼，而后者在于成功控制华盛顿K街上的游说公关公司，一时令民主党徒呼荷荷。
成也萧何，败也萧何。正如多数论客将共和党“永久多数”归功于“价值”因素，这一泡沫破灭的主因，也在于意识形态的破产。曾几何时，里根总统大力推动的减少政府管制（deregulation），今天被普遍看成是房地产泡沫和金融泡沫的孽因。
这种经济思想20年来的英雄功臣、前美国联储局主席格林斯潘，近日居然被意大利右翼政府财长指责为“对美国伤害仅次于宾拉登的罪魁”。
被里根总统看成是经济和社会问题根源的政府，如今却成为华尔街“肥猫”们的救星。一直主张紧缩社会福利开支的共和党领袖，却公开实施“救富社会主义”。这样赤裸裸的政策逆转，不能不导致共和党中下层社会基础的政治幻灭，触发共和党籍众议员无奈的“造反”。
其次，“反恐”战争在伊拉克和阿富汗的泥沼，严重打击了美国公众对强硬外交政策的信念，成为共和党在意识形态上破产的另一重要原因。相对而言，尽管有包括副总统候选人佩林未成年女儿未婚怀孕的多项道德丑闻，保守社会价值几乎是共和党剩下的唯一意识形态“稻草”。
选民取决于自身的利益
在政治操作层面，共和党在掌握国会两院多数后的财务腐败，不仅逆转了共和党“K街计划”的许多成果，更造成公众对利益集团政治献金的反感。另外政治嗅觉灵敏的不少企业界看到“永久多数”的末日，开始重抱民主党的大腿，急剧减少了共和党的政治捐款优势。
在民主社会中，选民意向终究取决于自身利益，在房地产泡沫和金融泡沫相继破灭之后，对大部分民众而言，经济利益不能不压倒“价值”考虑。尤其是与高科技泡沫不同，银行金融股票原是美国中产阶级投资或退休基金中“蓝筹中的蓝筹”，房产金融泡沫的破灭，严重伤到了大部分中产阶级的财产筋骨。共和党基层组织再有效率，也无法抗衡这一经济现实。
在普遍看成是大萧条以来最严重经济危机之下，奥巴马如果不是身为黑人，11月大选几乎是探囊取物。在国会，共和党四年前“永久多数”泡沫的彻底覆灭，更是可以翘足而待。
结果，整个制度给弄坏了，造成今天这么凄凉的处境。
从经济泡沫到政治泡沫 ——共和党“永久多数”的破灭
（2008-10-09）
于时语
近年来，美国出现一连串的经济泡沫，先是世纪之交的高科技泡沫，紧接着是房地产泡沫，再到最新的华尔街金融泡沫，从出现、暴涨到破灭的周期之快，令人目不暇接。
但是在政治领域，美国还有一个演变速度更惊人的泡沫，这便是喧嚣一时的共和党“永久多数”。最新的征象，是在华尔街金融泡沫破灭之际，却有三分之二的共和党众议员一开始投票反对布什政府的7000亿美元救市法案。
在共和党草根“造反”的老生常谈之外，《华尔街日报》精明地指出：反对救市法案的，多是11月大选中席位风雨飘摇的两党议员，而其中共和党人占绝对多数，反映了该党面临的恶劣选情。
“永久多数”有其基础
自从在1994年中期选举中，40年来首次夺得美国众议院多数席位，共和党在国会选战中几乎是无往不胜。共和党在2004年的大选中达到高峰，如日中天，“永久多数”之说因之甚嚣尘上。
2004年，不仅布什总统以多数选民票获得连任，共和党显著扩大了在参众两院的绝对多数。更有甚者，共和党还全面动员，将民主党在全美政界的最高人物、身为参议院少数党领袖的南达科他州的达斯勒（Tom Daschle）给拉下马，创造了半个多世纪未见的政治奇迹。
“保守主义革命”大潮势不可挡，弹冠相庆的保守派人士纷纷认为共和党的“永久多数”将会维持一代人以上。著名右翼论客巴恩斯（Fred Barnes）更预言未来数十年眼看都是“共和党霸权”（Republican hegemony）的天下。
可是短短两年之后，民主党便在2006年中期选举中以微弱多数夺回参、众两院的控制。今年大选前景，前引《华尔街日报》的前瞻性分析已经说得十分明白。更重要的是美国政治生态和经济状况的沧桑演变，使得共和党“永久多数”成为美国近代史上周期最短的政治泡沫。
在“意识形态”上，共和党“永久多数”的基础可以归纳为：第一，减少政府的社会功能和对经济的干预（“小政府”主义）。最好的例子是里根总统的就职演说：“政府不是我们问题的解答；问题本身正是政府。”
第二，保守的社会“价值”。第三，基于武力的强硬外交政策。
共和党意识形态的破产
在政治操作上，共和党“永久多数”依靠的是严密有效的基层组织，以及企业捐款与国会立法之间的“良性互动”。前者得益于基督教右翼，而后者在于成功控制华盛顿K街上的游说公关公司，一时令民主党徒呼荷荷。
成也萧何，败也萧何。正如多数论客将共和党“永久多数”归功于“价值”因素，这一泡沫破灭的主因，也在于意识形态的破产。曾几何时，里根总统大力推动的减少政府管制（deregulation），今天被普遍看成是房地产泡沫和金融泡沫的孽因。
这种经济思想20年来的英雄功臣、前美国联储局主席格林斯潘，近日居然被意大利右翼政府财长指责为“对美国伤害仅次于宾拉登的罪魁”。
被里根总统看成是经济和社会问题根源的政府，如今却成为华尔街“肥猫”们的救星。一直主张紧缩社会福利开支的共和党领袖，却公开实施“救富社会主义”。这样赤裸裸的政策逆转，不能不导致共和党中下层社会基础的政治幻灭，触发共和党籍众议员无奈的“造反”。
其次，“反恐”战争在伊拉克和阿富汗的泥沼，严重打击了美国公众对强硬外交政策的信念，成为共和党在意识形态上破产的另一重要原因。相对而言，尽管有包括副总统候选人佩林未成年女儿未婚怀孕的多项道德丑闻，保守社会价值几乎是共和党剩下的唯一意识形态“稻草”。
选民取决于自身的利益
在政治操作层面，共和党在掌握国会两院多数后的财务腐败，不仅逆转了共和党“K街计划”的许多成果，更造成公众对利益集团政治献金的反感。另外政治嗅觉灵敏的不少企业界看到“永久多数”的末日，开始重抱民主党的大腿，急剧减少了共和党的政治捐款优势。
在民主社会中，选民意向终究取决于自身利益，在房地产泡沫和金融泡沫相继破灭之后，对大部分民众而言，经济利益不能不压倒“价值”考虑。尤其是与高科技泡沫不同，银行金融股票原是美国中产阶级投资或退休基金中“蓝筹中的蓝筹”，房产金融泡沫的破灭，严重伤到了大部分中产阶级的财产筋骨。共和党基层组织再有效率，也无法抗衡这一经济现实。
在普遍看成是大萧条以来最严重经济危机之下，奥巴马如果不是身为黑人，11月大选几乎是探囊取物。在国会，共和党四年前“永久多数”泡沫的彻底覆灭，更是可以翘足而待。
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